Yet another mega-private-equity take-over. This time its KKR buying FDC for nearly 30 billion dollars. I look at this deal and wonder how it is going to work. Business Week thinks this is a great deal.
You will often read in the news comments like the following.
Carl Tannenbaum said, “I think chances are evenly split between a cut and a hike right now it looks like inflation is coming down – but core inflation is still stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target.
Why 2%, why not 3%, why not 1.12345%? After all 2% is some number somebody thought would be a good number. Well, the 2% number is based on a central bank strategy.
One of the things that I do to rationalize positions is take the opposite side and create my own debate. I often do this when my head says one thing, but my gut feeling is saying something else. So for this blog entry I am going to spill my guts and hope somebody wants to add their own two cents.
Ok, here is my problem that my gut keeps telling me, and its from from a comment Greenspan made.
Alan Greenspan said the housing downturn is more of a problem than credit quality and said the lending worries would be fixed if house prices rose 10 per cent.
Greenspan has been saying quite a few things lately with some things being that we may have a recession in the fall. I was reading in Business Week Greenspan is behaving the way he is because Bernake can’t tell the truth.
Ford is dire straits and we knew that. So what do they do? Sell Aston Martin! Idiots!!!! I am being harsh because I have not seen that much lunacy in a while. Aston Martin is profitable for Ford, and they sell what is profitable. What does Ford keep? Whatever is loosing money.
The Premier Auto Group, bogged down primarily by Jaguar, handed in a pretax loss of $344 million. Mulally, Ford’s top executive since September, has said Jaguar is not currently for sale.
Annual production dipped as low as just 46 cars in 1992. But the brand [Aston Martin] has enjoyed a resurgence this decade — a record 7,000 Aston Martins were sold worldwide last year and a similar number are expected to be purchased in 2007.
Oh yes let’s keep the stuff that is bleeding Ford and sell what is profitable for Ford! Yes that is smart, NOT!
Ok so the market is dropping, and as per my earlier comments you should wait until the Dow hits 11,750 before thinking of stepping in. I am changing my opinion. Yes I think the Dow will drop, but I think there is something more going on here.
For those that follow the car industry the linked news is definitely interesting. When I was studying to become a mechanical engineer I spent many a workterm working at Magna. My father was a higher-level manager at Magna and I used to have quite a few friends at Magna. For those that don’t know about Magna, think of it as the Microsoft of the car industry.
Magna was started by Frank Stronach an Austrian tool and die maker in the early 70’s. Frank found a niche in supplying car parts for the car industry. Supplying parts these days is a very lucrative business. What made Magna different from the rest is that they built an innovative company that appreciated its workers through things like profit-sharing.
Since I cashed out of equities about two months ago I have waited and watched for this pullback. I don’t trust the market because it seems to have forgotten about economics as illustrated by the referenced article.
I understand the market ignoring the slide in factory orders as a blip, but the out-pacing of wages to productivity is a problem. That is called inflation, and it is bad inflation, namely core inflation. I have noticed this core inflation problem at the stores as they have been scrimping on the sales, even if it is ever so slightly. I do the shopping in the household and I notice that prices have been moving upwards, again ever so slightly. As long as we have a core inflation problem there will be no interest rate drop, that means housing will be hurt and that means problems with our economy.
On days like these, it’s good to be 100% cash. I am holding some mutual funds in my IRA, but that was only down a little under 1% today (The only real loser was an S&P ETF I have 25% of my holdings in). However, my personal trading account was sidelined through this mess today. (more…)
My original version of this blog entry has been deleted because I did find some errors in my spreadsheet. I saw them when I was explaining what I thought I had found while doing my calculations. The new calculations are not as I thought they were, but still some interesting things can be extracted from (more…)
There is a rumour going around that GM might be buying (2) Chrysler. The rumour was based on something things that Zetsche (CEO DaimlerChrysler) said: Speculation about the future of Chrysler started earlier this week when DaimlerChrysler CEO Dieter Zetsche revealed the future of the money-losing Chrysler division was being studied, and that the company was open to (more…)