We are told time and time again that you can't predict the market. And time and time again people try to predict the market. Many model the market using stochastic principles, and use it to predict the market. I find this completely amusing (stochastics is about multiple destinys based on a single...
Read More →Well, I was right (see Wednesday's post). That at least feels good. However, I thought the market would make a decent recovery. I had raised my limit price to $51.20 (from $50.20) yesterday, realising the recovery was probably not going to be as strong as I wished. However, when I logged on tonight...
Read More →Do you buy or do you sell? Steve says the following: > Here’s the deal, if you felt Apple was a good buy at $130 and it drops to $120, why would you sell? Unless some really bad long term news came out, this is a buy trigger to me. Not only does it lower the cost basis of your original purchase,...
Read More →Maybe it's all the green on the screen so far... but already after looking through things a bit more, I a am less bleak than I was earlier. I had commented on Philip John's last post that after yesterday's sell-off, I was ready to sell into today's bounce to move to about 75% cash from 10% cash....
Read More →Two great posts to IG in the last few days have me back to make a counter-post to their great arguments. Call me the devil of IG if you want, but that's my job, right? I don't think you should sell off everything. I believe that a large correction is coming sooner than later (and is necessary)...
Read More →Just a quick note to say I think the market has had its major top. I am going to wait for a pullback tomorrow (Wednesday 25th July) and have an open order to go short SDS at $51. Hopefully this will get filled in the next day or two. My reasons for going short via SDS are two fold. Firstly, I am...
Read More →The consumer is tapped out. After consistent 25 basis point increases to the Federal Funds Rate, we are finally starting to see the effects on the stock market. Yesterday morning we saw three headlines that caught my attention. The first detailed Sears’ guidance for this quarter – a reduction from...
Read More →Many of you will have read about the advantages of Exchange Traded Funds over Mutual Funds. However, have you considered beyond the “ETF” moniker to ask: “What ETF index should I be looking for”? ETF Basics To start with, let’s quickly examine the basics of ETFs. These are generalities, but tend to...
Read More →Bill (CEO of WineLog) did a quick little post on Wine Investing over at the WineLog blog and introduced me to a site called WineInvestor.com. > A good site to learn about wine investing is wineinvestor.com. Wine Investor is collecting (in one place) all the types of information I would need to...
Read More →I'm writing this one directly into the blog, and with any hope it will go up before market open today. Let's what we have on dee plate. AMGN Notes from late last week: "Stoch sell. MACD still strong. I think this guy is recharging." I've since changed my theory from "recharging" to "dropping"....
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