The Lure of Fundamentally Weighted ETFs

Many of you will have read about the advantages of Exchange Traded Funds over Mutual Funds. However, have you considered beyond the “ETF” moniker to ask: “What ETF index should I be looking for”?

To start with, let’s quickly examine the basics of ETFs. These are generalities, but tend to hold true.

Exchange Traded Funds are managed such that the asset allocation of the fund matches the underlying index the fund is attempting to emulate. The indexes range from well known (e.g. S&P500) to obscure, created specifically for the ETF (e.g. water focused). Management fees are generally less than 0.5%, but can be higher for specialized funds. ETFs trade daily on the stock exchange and can trade at a premium or discount to the underlying assets. Through fancy footwork, ETFs generally retain profits within the fund and make only small distributions each year.

Wine Investing

Bill (CEO of WineLog) did a quick little post on Wine Investing over at the WineLog blog and introduced me to a site called WineInvestor.com. A good site to learn about wine investing is wineinvestor.com. Wine Investor is collecting (in one place) all the types of information I would need to explore investing in wine. (more…)

Watch List Notes for 26JUN07

I’m writing this one directly into the blog, and with any hope it will go up before market open today. Let’s what we have on dee plate. AMGN Notes from late last week: “Stoch sell. MACD still strong. I think this guy is recharging.” I’ve since changed my theory from “recharging” to “dropping”. It’s looking (more…)

Watch List Notes for 11JUN07

Below are my notes from yesterday, which I wrote before the open. I realize that I should be a bit quicker about putting these online because (1) they are sometimes timely and people might find them useful and (2) if I make a great prediction it will be easier to believe if I posted my (more…)

Watch List Notes for 6JUN07

I thought I would share my watch list notes again. Here’s what I wrote out this morning before the market opened. It was a really tough day out there, so I’m going to have to re-evaluate a bunch tomorrow. Hopefully this is helpful to you guys. AMGN No sell signals. Test of 30DMA coming up. (more…)

My Watchlist Notes from Yesterday

I’m getting back into trading a bit. Here are my watchlist notes from yesterday. Be warned, I’m a total hack. Even I’m going to do more research before using this stuff. Comments appreciated. AMD – Buy now. Watch intraday for bounce. Supports at $15, $13.50, $10. Half now, half on dip? ERTS – Buy soon. (more…)

I am a Bear in Bull’s Clothing and I Think Bernake is a Market Socialist!

In the middle of March I had an inkling that all was not well with my thinking. My thinking was that the market would pullback and that the global economy would slow down. Well I was wrong, and in the referenced blog entry I talked about what my head told me, and what my gut was telling me. It seems that my gut was telling me the right thing. As a result I have become a bear in bull’s clothing. This means I grudgingly accept the bull rally, but I don’t like it one bit!

The problem is inflation and getting it under control. Yes we can argue about how to measure inflation, but the reality is that there is inflation and I see it everyday in our pocket books. Low inflation, or virtually no inflation is good for the economy because it keeps the economy efficient. I had a gut feeling that Bernake was an inflation dove and cared more about the well being of the individual people.

Are the British Exchanges Larger than the American Exchanges?

A little birdie was telling me that recently London has become the largest exchange hosting foreign companies. It is now bigger to New York and preferred to simpler regulations. The WSJ talked about this about a year or so ago as did International Tribune this year. . The little birdie said, “point the finger at (more…)

AI and Trading

I was reading a blog entry on CPPTrader that was referencing an article from Bloomberg. I am a newbie with respect to trading, but with respect to AI I have been a few times around the block. It was something that I studied in University and have had an attraction to for a long time. I guess I am lazy and would love to write a program that “thinks” for me. As a sidenote I am using AI in my algorithmic trading software, but in a different context.

Avoiding Getting Burnt

Colin brought up the following point:

Christian, it is extremely interesting to read your thoughts on neural nets. I’ve been looking at Neural Nets in a piece of software called Merchant of Venice – http://mov.sourceforge.net/ . Beyond that, what’s interesting is that as humans, we can look at current day situations and have an innate sense that history is repeating itself, yet there are these outlying situations that break those rules – like Amazon’s recent performance.

How to put that “sense” into code and avoid getting burned by the outliers is the real rub