Christian

Bear Market? and Go Fly a Kite, Jim Cramer

Posted on by Christian

I think Jim Cramer lost it, and I don’t quite understand what Jim Cramer is recommending.

In his “Stop Trading” segment on Street Signs today, Cramer said the nation’s central bank is “asleep” and should immediately “relieve the pressure” on financial firms and the nation’s home owners who are facing big increases in their mortgage payments as ‘teaser’ rates expire.  Many thousands will “lose their homes,” he warned. “This is not the time to be complacent.”

He predicted a big rebound for the major stock market averages if the Fed does indeed lower rates

Jason

Managing Multiple Strategies

Posted on by Jason

So the other day, the big sell off started. And it’s arguable that it’s just beginning. Spurred on by Phil’s post, I considered selling out of everything.

It made sense: I thought everything was going down, so I should sell.

But it also didn’t make sense. One thing I’ve pointed out before is my struggles with trading/investing using so many different strategies. It’s easy to mix them up. That’s why when I make an entry, I need to know what my exit is… and stick to it.

The clearest no-no, which I avoided…

Phil

Bounce

Posted on by Phil

Hey everyone,

We are seeing a nice bounce in the markets this morning. The S&P500 is at 1485 as I write this(!!!). If you look at the 5 day chart, you will see this could take us back to part way through the crash we saw last week. The market is saved!

To me, this feels like a dead cat bounce – one formed by a pump in liquidity and a jump in premarket futures.

Christian

Separating Prediction From Fact

Posted on by Christian

We are told time and time again that you can’t predict the market. And time and time again people try to predict the market. Many model the market using stochastic principles, and use it to predict the market. I find this completely amusing (stochastics is about multiple destinys based on a single context.)

TraderFeed a favorite blog of mine had the following to say (Are We Making a Bottom).

There is both the sense that we could go much lower in a washout (a “Black Monday” scenario) and that we could be seeing an important bottom in the making.

Fair enough, good point we might be at an inflection point.

Phil

SDS@$54

Posted on by Phil

Well, I was right (see Wednesday’s post). That at least feels good. However, I thought the market would make a decent recovery. I had raised my limit price to $51.20 (from $50.20) yesterday, realising the recovery was probably not going to be as strong as I wished.

However, when I logged on tonight (it’s after midnight in Australia), SDS had already moved up to $53, and as I watched it shot towards $54. I got out the calculator, changed the volume and bought in just as it crossed $54. As I hit refresh now, it is in the mid $54s, heading back down.

Christian

To Buy or To Sell: That is the Question…

Posted on by Christian

Do you buy or do you sell? Steve says the following:

Here’s the deal, if you felt Apple was a good buy at $130 and it drops to $120, why would you sell? Unless some really bad long term news came out, this is a buy trigger to me. Not only does it lower the cost basis of your original purchase, but it increases your holdings at a price better than you thought was good before.

That is a very dangerous game to play since if the stock drops again you now lost double the amount. And you cannot predict whether a stock will go up or down since it is a general crapshot. Easy come and easy go is quite common in the market.

Steve

I’m back and still grumpy!

Posted on by Steve

Two great posts to IG in the last few days have me back to make a counter-post to their great arguments. Call me the devil of IG if you want, but that’s my job, right?

Jason

If You Haven’t Figured It Out Yet, I’m a Confused Trader

Posted on by Jason

Maybe it’s all the green on the screen so far… but already after looking through things a bit more, I a am less bleak than I was earlier. I had commented on Philip John’s last post that after yesterday’s sell-off, I was ready to sell into today’s bounce to move to about 75% cash from 10% cash.

I’ve decided to make no move today. Today is likely to be a nice up-recovery day. I need some time to think things through before selling long-term mutual fund and index positions. And I’m likely to do more damage selling early today than holding too long. Tomorrow would be a different story. We’ll see.

Part of my motivation to sell off so much is that I’m on vacation right now and would like to not have to worry about the market during this volatile time. (Day-traders are on to something with their owning no positions after hours.)

I’m also being very loss averse as after selling my GRMN at $81 (which it has bounced back above after a few shaking trading sessions) I’ve gone ahead an lost about $150 so far on two investments in Amgen (AMGN) and Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY). I had had those stocks on my list as good value-TA plays that were counter-cyclical to GRMN.

Some New Positions – What am I getting Into To?
AMGN still looks good…

Phil

Retreat!

Posted on by Phil

Just a quick note to say I think the market has had its major top.

I am going to wait for a pullback tomorrow (Wednesday 25th July) and have an open order to go short SDS at $51. Hopefully this will get filled in the next day or two.

Phil

The Fall of the All Consuming Yankee

Posted on by Phil

The consumer is tapped out. After consistent 25 basis point increases to the Federal Funds Rate, we are finally starting to see the effects on the stock market.

Yesterday morning we saw three headlines that caught my attention. The first detailed Sears’ guidance for this quarter – a reduction from $2.12 to from $1.06 to $1.32 per share. These revisions are, at best, a 30% reduction and, at worst, a 50% reduction from their previous optimistic estimates.

Notably, declines were across all categories. If you follow the theory that the consumer is on thin ice, then it is hardly surprising to find big ticket items are not being purchased. Sears is having trouble selling new stainless steel fridges and widescreen TVs because consumers do not feel confident about their financial situation. The only sector that wasn’t hit as hard was women’s apparel and footwear – suggesting stressed housewives may be engaging in retail therapy.