I invest using a combination of basic investor analysis, and technical analysis. Though my technical analysis library is nothing like you have seen before (don’t ask I am not sharing). Though I thought since Steve was talking about buying or selling I would share with you what my system is telling me.
Yes, I’m still alive, thanks for caring.
We’re in the middle of November and this is the time every year when it’s time to start making some important decisions on your stocks. Things get really wonky this time of year for no good reason than other people trying to cover their asses, so let’s take a look at what factors cause these next few weeks to be important in your decision making.
Developing the coastal regions for so long during the Mao period has left a huge disparity between the economies of the interior and the coast. The gap is so large that even though the interior in some areas is growing at the same rate as the coastal regions, the absolute gap only grows larger because of the disparity of their starting points.
While the six and seven five-year plans were based on the system that economic development would diffuse into the center from the coastal regions, this was not a good idea…
What concerns me and why I am ultra bearish with bull jacket is that there is a disconnect. Disconnects is when you see one thing, and experience another. Let me illustrate some disconnects:
After having the opportunity to visit a rural farming community in China it made me realize many things about China’s impressive growth. It is not an efficient growth, but an inefficient one. We see skyscrapers and massive Olympic structures being constructed every month but this is only a small part of China. Outside the two great cities of Beijing and Shanghai some small communities with de-collectivized farms hardly have any paved roads, and some have none at all. While we see this huge growth in China now, I do not believe that this growth is sustainable. My main reasons are as follows:
1. No infrastructure between inner and coastal China exists. During my visit to a small village the people said…
Over the course of this month I will be posting a series of articles on the Chinese economy. Just so you all know, I have been studying here at Beida for the semester or as foreigners call it Beijing (Peking) University and have come across some interesting realizations about China and their economy. While I (more…)
China’s market is getting harder and harder to understand; if they are in a bubble and how long it will last, or if there will be a correction and when, is a major topic with the coming Olympics. So I thought I would move the topic to another area. While there have been huge amounts (more…)
This two-part series by Bryant Urstadt is some of the best investing writing I’ve ever read. Bryant gives a run down of exactly what-the-f happened this Summer 2007. After reading these two pieces, "it all makes sense, man". Part 1: The Blow Up Teaser: On Wednesday, August 8, not long after the markets closed, 200 (more…)
As we all saw on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve made equal 25 basis point cuts to the Federal Funds Rate and the Discount Rate. While we are happy that core inflation is not going to be a large problem with this rate cut, and that we are easing rates in a growing economy where we just saw the U.S. economy grow at an annualized growth rate of 3.9%, I believe that many other problems will arise.
While lowering rates will bring along a lower borrowing cost I do not think that our economy needs this. Doing this will only bring people to spend more money on things they do not need. As we saw already companies that sold necessities like The Procter & Gamble Company(NYSE:PG) and Johnson & Johnson(NYSE:JNJ) have both been doing well though the subprime market problems.
Lowering rates now will also…
1. We have a new author! His name is Alex, and he’s already published a great article on alternative energy that is getting some attention in the comments. View the great discussion over there. 2. People are signing up for the mailing list. Good. I still have no idea what we’ll do with it. In (more…)
