I have been watching less and less of CNBC. I can barely watch the FastMoney weenies. I try for 10 minutes and get so disgusted that I can only turn it off.
But today I thought I would watch Squawkbox, and Squawk on the Street again. David Faber talked about something that I feel crossed the line. His thing today was, "Hey it might be bad here, but it is worse over there". WTF? David, please tell me the value this provides other than schadenfreude?
In March of 2007 I said that Magna buying Chrysler would be a good thing. And I specifically said that private equity would botch this up.
Magna knows the car parts industry through and through. Thus unlike other private equity companies there is a good chance that Chrysler would survive and prosper.
I did not think that private equity could manage Chrysler. I understood why Daimler sold to them, since only private equity is stupid enough to overpay. Though now private equity is crying, "Oh, Oh you sold us a dud…"
I am developing this platform called HippoTrader. It is an Excel based market environment tool that is the result of working with my traders. One of the things that this tool allows is the scanning of the market as the market moves. So I decided to watch the market for the bear raid algorithm. Folks, this algo is on the European and North American markets.
Here is the usual pattern:
Ok, I write trading systems, and as such watch the market quite closely. Well for the past few couple of months an interesting algo has revealed itself. I am thinking it is revealing itself because many are using it.
Today I noticed something interesting going on. I noticed how there were buyers, but they were overwhelmed. And that got me to thinking. Who on earth would sell now?
I read this article and it said, "oh there is a descending triangle forming and that spells bad news.
Really? It does? Why? Because analysts say so?
"We know only that ‘triangles’ such as this one tend to resolve themselves to the downside,” writes Dennis Gartman this morning in The Gartman Letter, which is standard reading on Wall Street trading floors everywhere. But he’s not alone by any means.
How do you know Dennis? Did you do any analysis or are you flying by the seat of your pants?
Let me figure this out, and see if the analysts are right. I have the book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. It is an interesting book because what it did is take a quantitative approach to chart patterns.
I keep hearing Fast Money and its rants! They keep saying, "oh the automotive industry is not doing any changes"
I have to admit that my statistics model was walloped. Hey I was wrong, and that happens.
About a year ago I did simple trend analysis of the long term DOW (since 1929) and what I saw I did not like. It said that we would reach levels that we are at now. So why did I not talk about that? Because I thought it was a statistical outlier and hence not likely…
HA!!! Wrong…
So I watched Meet the Press with Tom Friedman, and here is what he says:
Yes I believe in free markets, but the problem is that free markets can’t control themselves. And from none other than George Soros did I hear an argument that supports my belief.
