Jason

Expect incredible earnings from Google’s next earnings call.

Posted on by Jason

I originally posted this on the Google Finance discussion boards and then though I’d fix it up a bit before posting… but well anyway…

I was bearish on Google before the last earnings call.

I felt that Google would miss some numbers due to recent changes
they’ve made in the “clickable area” of their ads and their PageRank
formula. Both changes were good long term (since they’ll help combat
click fraud and spammy publishers – and generally increase the quality
of the ads). But the changes came with some immediate cost to the
bottom line in the short term.

I am now bullish on Google for the same reasons. Or really because (1)
it wasn’t that bad and (2) the long term is already here.

Jason

I’m on uStream RIGHT NOW at Bryn Mawr University

Posted on by Jason

I’m speaking on a panel that will hopefully help some Bryn Mawr and Haverford students get jobs after college. You can see me 7pm EST on 3/18/2008 at this link: http://www.haverford.edu/cdo/opportunities/events/

Jason

What is the inflation rate really?

Posted on by Jason

The PPI report came out today. While we are doing better than Zimbabwe, things are still a little scary.

I was having dinner with Chris last weekend, and I expressed concern over US inflation. He asked me what the numbers were, and I didn’t have them handy. Here are the numbers from a MarketWatch article on the January 2008 PPI report.

First, the most concerning number of all:

Year over year, the PPI is up 7.4% — the fastest pace since 1981. Also on an annualized basis, the core PPI is up 2.3%.

And here are some more details found at the end of the article: (after the jump)

Jason

My Google Earnings Prediction: Miss

Posted on by Jason

Google will miss expected earnings numbers tomorrow (IMO). There are two recent “shoot your own foot” actions from Google that may affect their short term performance. Overall, I agree with the changes, but I wouldn’t be swinging into earnings tomorrow.

(1) Google changed the “hit area” of their AdSense ads. Before the entire ad area was clickable. Now just the heading and url are.

There are mixed reports on whether or not this is affecting overall click through rates (CTR) and earnings. On InvestorGeeks, our CTR went from 2-2.25% in September and October to 1.25-1.5% in December and January. Our overall earnings are down 40%.

Most of Google’s revenue comes from their own search page which likely had smaller drops (if at all). But if other sites have had slowdowns like we have, this would eat into Googles earnings growth.

In the long run I think this is a good move, as it will cut down on fraud… eventually leading to more advertisers and higher ad rates. In the shot term, however, folks are taking a hit.

(read on for reason #2)

Jason

2007 Giving

Posted on by Jason

I just wanted to do a nice recap of the donations we made on behalf of InvestorGeeks in 2007. All totaled, we gave a tad over $2000 in 2007. We’re looking to nearly double that in 2008… as long as our traffic and advertising relationships hold up. 2007 InvestorGeeks Donations – $400 to The Arthritis (more…)

Jason

Gavin’s Calling All Canadians: RSP Advice

Posted on by Jason

Got this email from a fan. And since none of the current writers are Canadian, I thought I’d throw this out there. BTW, RSP stands for “Registered Retirement Savings Plan” and seems to be a Canadian 401k. I’m sure a lot of the standard retirement plan advice would apply, but we’re looking for a Canadian (more…)

Jason

We’re Buying a House

Posted on by Jason

A BuildingSo Kim and I are in the process of buying a house. We’re going through a lot and learning tons of stuff that would be great to share with all of you.

Perhaps more importantly, there are a bunch of folks smarter than me who occasionally read this. So I’m hoping we can get some good advice here and there.

But to start I’ll just try to give a little background in this post before I get into some more specific topics later. For those who don’t know, I do web development with my wife Kim. We work for our own company Stranger Studios and work from home (our apartment right now). This is all going very well. Work is good. Making your own hours is great. Spending every minute of every day with the woman I love is truly incredible. I doubt most couples could do it, but Kim and I pull it off with style.

Life is good. Ok.

Because we work from home, we could live anywhere. And we’ve been conscious of this. We’ve considered a number of places to settle down for the next 5 years or so: Arizona, New Mexico, Mexico Proper, San Francisco, Napa, Oregon, Idaho. One fun game we had was to open up Google Maps and just zoom into a random spot on the map. We’d look for lakes, rivers, small towns, or anything else that looked interesting to live near.

Jason

Ken Fisher’s Website

Posted on by Jason

I don’t usually post links from link requests emailed to me, but I got one from Ken Fisher’s team… and I think Ken Fisher is pretty cool. I like his book. He writes for Forbes, which I should start getting since Business 2.0 went under. He’s pretty smart and has been right about the market (more…)