I Don’t Trust the Market

Since I cashed out of equities about two months ago I have waited and watched for this pullback. I don’t trust the market because it seems to have forgotten about economics as illustrated by the referenced article.

I understand the market ignoring the slide in factory orders as a blip, but the out-pacing of wages to productivity is a problem. That is called inflation, and it is bad inflation, namely core inflation. I have noticed this core inflation problem at the stores as they have been scrimping on the sales, even if it is ever so slightly. I do the shopping in the household and I notice that prices have been moving upwards, again ever so slightly. As long as we have a core inflation problem there will be no interest rate drop, that means housing will be hurt and that means problems with our economy.

Book Review: When Genius Failed

Sorry folks for not blogging sooner. I have some insights to the market, but right now I am recovering from a vicious bout of food poisoning. In the past six years I have had four food poisoning’s and three times it was from sandwiches that I bought while driving. You would think it is a problem specific to a store or country. Nope, not at all, I bought bad sandwich’s in Canada, Austria, and Germany. What was common between them all? It was the meat that went bad. (Go vegans go?)

Ok to the topic, and the book review of When Genius Failed. I was recommended this book on CNBC Power Lunch Europe by a professional trader when I asked the question, “I understand the theory behind options, pricing, hedging, Greeks, and have read the classics like Hull, but I am wondering what books I should read to implement a hedging strategy as I do not have access to professional traders?” The trader’s answer was interesting in that he said, “What you need is experience and therefore the books you should buy are Hedge Hogging (which I read), Liars Poker, or When Genius Failed.

What Gives With Interest Only Being Better Version 2?

My original version of this blog entry has been deleted because I did find some errors in my spreadsheet. I saw them when I was explaining what I thought I had found while doing my calculations. The new calculations are not as I thought they were, but still some interesting things can be extracted from (more…)

GM Buying Chrysler?

There is a rumour going around that GM might be buying (2) Chrysler. The rumour was based on something things that Zetsche (CEO DaimlerChrysler) said: Speculation about the future of Chrysler started earlier this week when DaimlerChrysler CEO Dieter Zetsche revealed the future of the money-losing Chrysler division was being studied, and that the company was open to (more…)

Book Reviews: Profit From Uranium and Profit from China

I am going to review the two books; Profit From Uranium and Profit from China. I want to structure my review in three parts, initial, reading it, and digested the information.

Initial: When I first received the books I looked at them and thought, huh that’s it! Fifty pages and about a third are “don’t do this or that.” Let me say that I was a bit disappointed and had some very low expectations. But I guess one should never judge a book by its cover, or page count. 😉

My Past Predictions On The State of Wireless

I saw an article at MarketWatch that talked about 3G and how it has not lived up to expectations. Well, I could have told you that in 2002. I know that I said that in 2002 because in 2002 I gave a presentation at the Ann Arbor Computing Society entitled “The State of Wireless.”    In (more…)

Tech: It’s Not About Vista, or OSX…

I wrote an earlier comment about Microsoft and the Daily Show and how Bill Gates seems to have changed. David commented and I read his story about what he believes will happen regarding Vista.

Many people think it is about Google and Apple. I completely disagree! Google will be Google, but this is as good as it is going to get for Google, likewise for Apple, and for many other software companies. Though I do think Microsoft will surge in this market, which of course may seem counter-intuitive.

People are always interested in the next 10 bagger. I think the next 10 bagger will not be a You-Tube, MySpace or Google type company. The next 10 bagger is going to be a company that has a hardware and software play. For example, look at the Wii. It is taking the market by storm because it is new, refreshing and a hardware / software play. When I saw the Wii for the first time I thought, yupe this thing is going sky high!

When I saw the Apple iPhone I did not see a Wii. When I see Google I see rehashed ideas. For example I love news.google.com, but that idea is getting old. When I see Microsoft I see a utility company, but a company that will be here for decades to come.

On the Lighter Side: This is an IPO I Will Wait For

I was watching TV and saw a new market niche, “rent a demonstrator.” Wow times have changed. As the article said it used to be people would demonstrate out of passion. Though with a busy society, and a society that is consumer based, well we are all too busy… They showed this on TV and (more…)

Pay Attention: We are on the Edge

Last week (1,2) I talked about how the DJI should be breaking through the 12,700 barrier. We did not break through it, and I starting to become concerned. Some technical analysts will draw pretty pictures with lines in multiple directions, but we are hitting a resistance point. I like technical analysis, but use it in (more…)

Venezuela is Taking Another Step Closer to Dictatorship

If you have any monies in Venezuela I would think very very hard about it taking those monies out. Venezuela is taking another step closer to becoming a dictatorship. As I commented earlier it looked like Venezuela was moving in this direction.

President Hugo Chavez was granted free rein Wednesday to accelerate changes in broad areas of society by presidential decree — a move critics said propels Venezuela toward dictatorship.