Christian

Stochastics and Multiple Realities

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Tom gave a reply that I think deserves more attention. Tom made the following comment to one of my blog entries.

One more thing, if the market is random per the stochastic process and you can’t find patterns in a market where patterns don’t exist, then why do we have trends? A trend is a pattern in my opinion.

If you look at the definition of stochastic process at wikipedia it does not say random as in completely random walk. What the definition is saying is that at each and every point multiple realities can occur.

Christian

Is the Model Important?

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Tom wrote the following comment:

Christian, great article! I was building an ATS myself but had to put it on the back burner. Do you dabble in neural nets and AI modeling as well? I predominately use YALE, an open source data mining, machine learning software to build currency, futures, and stock models.

This helps me identify emerging market trends and trade (discretionary) accordingly.

Christian

Quant Based Trading: Good News, and Bad News

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For the past eight months or so I have been writing my own quant based trading system. I like to call it quant based trading, and not automated trading because quant implies analysis and some automated trading. Trading based on quantative analysis is becoming the norm, not the exception. Automated trading implies auto-pilot and not as much analysis. If you don’t know much about automated trading it is time that you start learning about it.Now brokerage companies are starting to release automated trading software that you can use to devise your own strategies. For example, TDAmeritrade has released such software. I use Interactive Brokers as an online brokerage, which has an application programming interface allowing me to write my automated trading software. Or you can buy software that allows you to write scripts.

Christian

Turn 100,000 into 1.6 million in Four Months!

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Yes you read it right, I can show you how to make 1.5 million in less than four months. You think it is impossible, right? Think of what you could do with that money. You could pay off your mortgage, take a trip around the world, or buy a brand new Hummer because well you (more…)

Christian

Ever Wonder Why the 2.0% Inflation Target is Important?

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You will often read in the news comments like the following.

Carl Tannenbaum said, “I think chances are evenly split between a cut and a hike right now it looks like inflation is coming down – but core inflation is still stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target.

Why 2%, why not 3%, why not 1.12345%? After all 2% is some number somebody thought would be a good number. Well, the 2% number is based on a central bank strategy.

Christian

My Head Says One Thing, But My Gut Says Another Thing!

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One of the things that I do to rationalize positions is take the opposite side and create my own debate. I often do this when my head says one thing, but my gut feeling is saying something else. So for this blog entry I am going to spill my guts and hope somebody wants to add their own two cents.

Ok, here is my problem that my gut keeps telling me, and its from from a comment Greenspan made.

Alan Greenspan said the housing downturn is more of a problem than credit quality and said the lending worries would be fixed if house prices rose 10 per cent.

Greenspan has been saying quite a few things lately with some things being that we may have a recession in the fall. I was reading in Business Week Greenspan is behaving the way he is because Bernake can’t tell the truth.

Christian

What are the Managers of Ford Thinking?

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Ford is dire straits and we knew that. So what do they do? Sell Aston Martin! Idiots!!!! I am being harsh because I have not seen that much lunacy in a while. Aston Martin is profitable for Ford, and they sell what is profitable. What does Ford keep? Whatever is loosing money.

The Premier Auto Group, bogged down primarily by Jaguar, handed in a pretax loss of $344 million. Mulally, Ford’s top executive since September, has said Jaguar is not currently for sale.

Annual production dipped as low as just 46 cars in 1992. But the brand [Aston Martin] has enjoyed a resurgence this decade — a record 7,000 Aston Martins were sold worldwide last year and a similar number are expected to be purchased in 2007.

Oh yes let’s keep the stuff that is bleeding Ford and sell what is profitable for Ford! Yes that is smart, NOT!

Christian

What To Do After the Drop

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Ok so the market is dropping, and as per my earlier comments you should wait until the Dow hits 11,750 before thinking of stepping in. I am changing my opinion. Yes I think the Dow will drop, but I think there is something more going on here.

Christian

Take Notice: Chrysler and Magna

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For those that follow the car industry the linked news is definitely interesting. When I was studying to become a mechanical engineer I spent many a workterm working at Magna. My father was a higher-level manager at Magna and I used to have quite a few friends at Magna. For those that don’t know about Magna, think of it as the Microsoft of the car industry.

Magna was started by Frank Stronach an Austrian tool and die maker in the early 70’s. Frank found a niche in supplying car parts for the car industry. Supplying parts these days is a very lucrative business. What made Magna different from the rest is that they built an innovative company that appreciated its workers through things like profit-sharing.