I have not been posting as much as usual. It has been a really busy time for me. I have a whole lot of blog posts that I need to release and simply have not had the time. Though in the next couple of weeks things should ease up a bit for me.
What’s new? Well I am writing algo trading routines, that is sort of new. It is actually very very exciting work because I learn how future traders make their money. I now know more about market depth than I think I really care to know.
In February I did a simulation of the market. And if you look at how I predicted things, it has turned out to be pretty much on the money. My tops and bottoms are not completely right in terms of values, but pretty close. Closer than I expected.
Along comes RBS and says the following.
A credit strategist from the Royal Bank of Scotland warned investors in a note that the S&P 500 may fall by more than 300 points by September and that iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar, according to a report in the Daily Telegraph newspaper. “Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job,” the RBS strategist, Bob Janjuah, was quoted as saying.
Ok I have officially turned bearish on Apple. Has the iPhone been a success? Yeah it was ok, but pretty good in general. I turned bearish because iPhone2 is not a cheap deal. The iPhone at 399 was a cheap deal because you could jailbreak your iPhone. And this was the exact reason why people bought iPhones. Youth could buy an iPhone and use it with their existing cell phone networks.
So here is the question who is at fault? Is it demand or is it the speculator? I decided to find this out once and for all what is going on. In Michael Masters testimony he said that the Index Speculator is making things worse because of the calendar spread that is being created. The question though is Michael Masters right or wrong?
Tom at Neural Market Trends posed the question on how one would build a neural network model of the US Dollar. I added the following comment:
What if I told you that the reason why oil and commodities are high is because there is a positive re-enforcing feedback loop going on? I have been saying that it is the speculators. But what if something bigger is going on?
What if what we have is a twist on The Power of Nightmares (Video)? The documentary focused on the idea that two dissimilar, but opposite forces both get what they want without actually talking to each other. In other words you get a feedback loop that helps feed the fire on each side.
There was a bit of spike in Ford, and then today the bombshell was dropped.
Ford Motor Co. today said it might not achieve its goal of profitability in 2009 for its troubled North American business unit — citing higher commodity costs and the sour U.S. economy, which is causing gas-sensitive customers to move more quickly out of large trucks and SUVs and into more fuel-efficient cars and crossovers.
Ford, its too late, you are road kill!
Folks STOP BEING IN DENIAL! Finally SOMEBODY big says it as it is!
“Index speculators’ trading strategies amount to virtual hoarding via the commodities futures markets,” Michael Masters, a former hedge fund trader, told the committee in prepared testimony.
And he goes on…
“Institutional investors are buying up essential items that exist in limited quantities for the sole purpose of reaping speculative profits,” he said.
What have I been saying? I have been saying buying commodities is akin to flipping houses! Michael Masters even goes on to say that the speculator is creating as much demand as China! Think about it folks!
I am trying to get my head around this alternative deal that Microsoft is proposing.
“In light of developments since the withdrawal of the Microsoft proposal to acquire Yahoo! Inc., Microsoft announced that it is continuing to explore and pursue its alternatives to improve and expand its online services and advertising business. Microsoft is considering and has raised with Yahoo! an alternative that would involve a transaction with Yahoo! but not an acquisition of all of Yahoo! Microsoft is not proposing to make a new bid to acquire all of Yahoo! at this time, but reserves the right to reconsider that alternative depending on future developments and discussions that may take place with Yahoo! or discussions with shareholders of Yahoo! or Microsoft or with other third parties.
At first I thought WTF? Has Microsoft become that impotent? The scoop is that Microsoft would work with Yahoo in some type of joint venture involving search advertising. It makes you to wonder what they have in mind. Joint venture? Transaction? Is this not a bad way to get into the search advertising field?
Recently in a local financial paper it was said that some local Swiss Traders are stepping out of the soft commodities trade. Some banks have said that they have never even started that trade.
So what was the reason? Ethics…
