I’m writing this one directly into the blog, and with any hope it will go up before market open today. Let’s what we have on dee plate.
AMGN
Notes from late last week: “Stoch sell. MACD still strong. I think this guy is recharging.”
I’ve since changed my theory from “recharging” to “dropping”. It’s looking bleak for this guy short term. 30DMA is providing resistance and Stoch and MACD are signaling sell. Lots and lots of support at $52. And although it’s well below my MOS of $65, I sold my 60 share stake last Friday at $55.62. There’s a lesson there on trusting your instincts while selling, as I could have sold it at $60 and kept $22 more, but that’s another story.
I have a bit of sellers remorse though. This really was a value play. I sold it in my trading acount, which means full tax on the $5 I made, not to mention E*Trade’s high fees. And I’m reminded of a bad sell I made on YHOO last summer where I avoided a $1 loss that was coming, but then missed the $6 run up. That could be happening here.
In any case, I thought it would be good to have some cash on hand going into this little bear run so I dropped this one too. Though my gut tells me I should possibly be selling this next stock to lock in some real profit.
GRMN (I own 75 shares)
Notes from late last week: “Can anything stop these guys? My higher sticker price was around $75, so I’m looking for any reason to sell. I want to let it run, but I’ve “made my year” on this one stock already. I’d like to ensure that I don’t give it all back. Need to figure out a good stop placement: $69.90?”
I’m glad I didn’t set that stop because I would have been stopped out and the stock has gone up since. But I haven’t made nothing until I sell right? But then what am I going to do after I sell? Put it back into GRMN? I need a better alternative, and I’m just going to watch this carefully for a more pessimistic sign. The thing is flying high right now.
AMD
Looking strong here. MACD and Stoch have thrown buys. The price is above the 30DMA, but I’d like to see a full bar there. I have some cash on hand, maybe this is where it should go. Seems like the news about AMD outsourcing fabrication went over well. Was it enough to turn the stock around? I’d be looking for the stock to reclaim the 200DMA at around $17.50, but there’s a lot of resistance on the way up. Plenty of support at $13.
ERTS
I second guessed myself, when ERTS went above my selling price of $49 last week. But it seems that was on the back of a stronger market, and the price is south again. This is a troubled stock (at least short term) that I don’t need the headache for. The 30DMA seems to be giving a lot of resistance. This one is going on the back burner until I gain my confidence back in EA. Technically, I’d like to see a full bar above the 30DMA and the 10DMA cross above the 50DMA before jumping back in.
EBAY
30DMA is showing resistance, but this stock is also in a nice little up channel. A break of the 30DMA could be very bullish. Look for more resistance at $34, support at $31.40. I think could see a large run here like we had with Amazon earlier. eBay is another tech business that Wall Street (and Main Street) doesn’t understand. Why did they buy Skype? Why did they buy this or that? What are they doing? Is the toning down of Google advertising going to hurt them or a good sign of their strength? I might buy some of this now and hope they can break $35 this time. Going to do some MOS calculations to check my risk here. Read here for Phil Town’s eBay analysis from last year (when the stock was at about the same price). My numbers are a bit more conservative, but they are still saying buy buy buy.
Current Earnings: $1.05
EPS Growth: 22%
Average PE: 44
EPS in 10 Years: $7.67
Future Value: $337.47
Sticker Price: $84.37
MOS 50%: $42.18
I’m going to be looking to buy this fella today. I’ll let y’all know how it goes.
QQQQ (I own 90 shares)
Staying the course. One of the major indexes above its 30DMA. I think we see a bounce here or after one more bad day. Holding this to keep pace with market.
ACN
My notes from late last week: “3 Buys. Looking good. $40.45 entry o short-term pullback. Need to do a MOS calculation.” And the stock is doing great. Still need to do that MOS, so here it is:
Current Earnings: $1.61
EPS Growth: 17%
Average PE: 20
EPS in 10 Years: $7.74
Future Value: $154.78
Sticker Price: $38.69
MOS 50%: $19.35
ACN is a great company and great stock, but it’s trading at around or just a little above sticker price (according to my off-the-cuff here). So I can’t invest now. My Average PE is a little low, so I might look into it more to double check. A PE of 34 (twice my EPS growth estimate, but higher than the historical average) gives us a sticker price of $65.78… which would be more room to grow.