Below are my notes from yesterday, which I wrote before the open. I realize that I should be a bit quicker about putting these online because (1) they are sometimes timely and people might find them useful and (2) if I make a great prediction it will be easier to believe if I posted my notes before that prediction came true. Still, maybe I don’t want people trading on this advice (be warned!).
I don’t know exactly why I’m doing this. I just feel I have already written the notes, might as well throw them online. At the same time, I’m hoping to get a few “what the hell are you doing” comments that could help me avert disaster. Like, where were you guys when I invested in ERTS?
AMGN:
Found support on the 10DMA. Looking good.30DMA Crossing under the 50DMA will mean those levels will be super resistant. Would like to break through them this week. Otherwise it’s back to $55 territory to reload. I’m guess a bit of lateral movement for the next few days until a break out. This is a value play though. So we’re stilling in.
GRMN:
Nice day Friday. Bullish engulfing? Fake bounce of the fast stochastics. MACD is scaring. Time to sell into strength? I’m already up good with this one. Trailing stop?
(Here are the time when I forget what I’m doing. Am I trading? Am I investing over a longer time frame. This stock is held in my IRA. While that means I won’t pay tax on the earnings (so trade it), it also means the gains are for the long term so I can afford to use a more conservative trading approach.)
(After hours note: We did really good with this one today. Another big up day. Looking at the 5 year chart, I see no resistance and a lot of room to move. So I want to give it some space. But I will have a trigger finger on the sell button. My MOS calculations put the sticker price on this one between $71 and $84 -need to update- so I’ll definitely be looking to sell there.)
AMD:
What a confused stock. Still scary. A $15-$18 play would be nice. Too bad it will probably make that jump in one day, and so one would have to be way more observant and prepared than I too make that trade.
ERTS:
I’m torn on this stock too. Technicals and news are weak, but I have an 50% MOS at $43, so a bit of support. Maybe my calculatons are bad. I need a close above 30DMA today. Should consider a stop loss. I’m going to watch the daily and try to sell this today.
(After Hours Note: I sold my stake in ERTS, or 50 shares, at $49.00 yesterday. Not too bad. I still think there is a lot of growth potential in the videogames market, and EA is the biggest player. But the Earnest Adams article -saying EA is no longer a growth company-, EA’s misstep with the Wii, and some other negative bits are playing out harder than I originally thought. I’m torn though, because a bunch of negative analysts only leads to upgrades -or bankruptcy, which I don’t see here-. But I shouldn’t be torn. I should be absolutely 100% convinced… or close to. So I’m going to find a different videogames play or wait for a better entry on this one.)
EBAY:
Big bullish engulf Friday. Hit resistance at 200DMA though. Wait for some + MA crossovers.
QQQQ:
Looks like it’s bouncing. Watch that MACD. A close below the 30DMA is bearish.I’m calling a whipsaw.
(After Hours Note: Bounced off the 30DMA. However, we’re looking at a -0.16 open according to E*Trade. Ditto yesterday’s note. I want to see a powerful up day today to regain the trend.)
Full disclosure: I own 60 shares of AMGN, 90 shares of QQQQ, 75 shares of GRMN, and some other IRA money in various index and mutual funds. Use these notes at your own risk.