I have been way, way to long from writing this. But the reality is that I really did not know what to say because I was confused and perplexed about the market. Today when I watched Cramer I finally decided to take the bull by the horns and release all of my predictions that I have been writing about for the past month.
2010 is the year that the market changed. Cramer is complaining about how people are pouring their money into bonds and missing the stock market. But I think there is a reason for this. I have been looking at volume and what I see scares me. Volume is down by quite a bit.
Yes, yes in the past I have said that volume moved to other venues and that we should ignore it as an indicator. But now I am concerned, I am concerned that those that are sitting on the sidelines are not sitting on the sidelines, but are in fact investing in bonds and staying on the sidelines. Or they are going abroad, and investing in those markets.
Thus I think 2010 will be the year where the market changed and that the sidelined people will stay on the sideline. I am wondering if those on the sideline are in fact not retirees or soon to be retirees who are not interested at any cost in the market. They are more interested in preserving whatever they have. And bonds will give you that. Especially if interest rates are going to be going higher.